The 600-Home Run Threshhold

As Alex Rodriguez approaches 600 career home runs (he may have already done so by the time this posts), a lot of pundits have suggested that 600 isn't what it used to be.  The fact that several players have reached  500-homer status - which used to be the threshold for greatness - and the number of 600+ home run players doubled in recent years, combined with revelations of steroid use among baseball players, seems to have diminished the difficulty of this milestone.

At the same time, others analysts have noted that it may be a long time before another pitcher wins 300 games.  Thus, the argument goes that 600 home runs is now much easier to achieve than 300 wins.

While the "steroid era" may have boosted home run production, at least the top-end years, and certainly changes in pitcher use (see note below) makes 300 wins more difficult, 600 home runs always has been far more achievable than previously thought.  Not to say it is "easy," of course, but given the right circumstances, it is realistic for outstanding power hitters.

Here are five basic criteria for getting 600 home runs or 300 wins:

1. Start young - hitting home runs or winning games by age 21
2. Play a long time - still being productive at age 40
3. Stay healthy (and don't miss time fighting in wars)
4. Consistently have good seasons- 30+ HRs or 15+ wins
5. Have multiple great season- 40+ HRs or 20+ wins (50+ HRs or 25+ wins are a bonus)

Of course, this should illustrate why modern pitchers are at a disadvantage - with the move to a 5-man rotation and greater bullpen use, winning 20 games is a rarity, and winning 25 or more almost never happens any more.  On the other hand, 600 home runs is and always was feasible, even without the 60- or 70-plus homer seasons of the steroid era.

To illustrate, I will run down those who could have hit 600 home runs, starting with those who just missed the 500 HR club.

• Fred McGriff (493)- The "Crime Dog" was a fine slugger, but only meets one of the four criteria - most notably he never hit 40 or more home runs, topping out at 36 in a season.
• Lou Gehrig (493) - If you've read to this point, you probably know something about baseball, and certainly know that Lou Gehrig's career was cut short by Lou Gehrig's Disease.  He was finished at age 36, or else he likely would have reached 600 home runs.
• Eddie Murray (504) - Eddie Murray played a long time, but was never a great home run hitter.  His career high was 33 (though he did lead the league in the strike-shortened 1981 season), and only hit 30+ in 5 of 21 seasons.
  
• Gary Sheffield (509) - Sheffield's career was up and down, he broke in early, but struggled his first few years.  He had several good years and two 40+ years, but also several injury-plagued seasons.
• Mel Ott (511) - Only hit 40 once, and his production declined dramatically after age 30.
  
• Ernie Banks (512) - While Banks had more 40+ seasons than 30 to 39 homer season, he also declined after age 30, and didn't hit 20+ in a season until age 24.  
• Eddie Mathews (512) - Like Banks and Ott, dramatically declined after age 30.
• Willie McCovey (521) - McCovey started young and played a lot of years, but didn't hit a lot of home runs early or late in his career.  He only reached 40+ twice and 30+ seven times in 22 years.
  
• Frank Thomas (521) - Thomas was a great hitter early in his career, but lost a lot of time to injuries throughout his career; only hit 40+ twice.
• Ted Williams (521) - I'm going to pretend Ted Williams did hit 600 home runs - his major fault is missing most of five seasons fighting in wars.  WWII and the Korean War took Williams away from baseball during his peak (he missed parts of other seasons with injuries), otherwise, he'd have cleared 600 easily, and probably finished with 700 or more.
• Jimmie Foxx (534) - Foxx was fantastic early in his career, but he was washed up by age 33.
• Mickey Mantle (536) - Like others in his era, Mantle declined rapidly after age 30, and was out of baseball after age 36.
  
• Mike Schmidt (548) - Schmidt was the best home run hitter of his era, and hit 30+ homers regularly and 40+ often enough, but he started a bit late, and finished a bit early to make it to 600.
• Manny Ramirez (554) - Still going, and might make 600.  If not, it's probably due to the fact he didn't hit 20 or more in a season until age 23, and missed 50 games in 2009 due to suspension (plus a lot of games over the years due to various injuries).
• Reggie Jackson (563) - People love Mr. October, but his postseason heroics dwarf his regular season production.  Jackson hit 40 homers only twice, and only hit 30 or more seven times in 21 seasons of play, yet still approached 600.
  
• Rafael Palmeiro (566) - That Palmeiro approached 600 home runs demonstrates how attainable it is.  While perhaps aided by steroids late in his career, Palmeiro was never considered a great home run hitter compared to his contemporaries.  He did hit 40+ four times, but never led the league, and didn't hit 20 in a season until age 26.
• Harmon Killebrew (573) - Killebrew was great in between, but didn't really start playing until age 23, and declined after age 34.
  
• Jim Thome (575) - Still playing, and might have a shot at 600, but didn't break through until age 23, and missed almost all of the 2005 season with injury, as well as parts of other years.
  
• Mark McGwire (583) - McGwire broke in with a bang, and had several monster years.  But he was already 23 as a rooking, retired at age 37, and had 4 seasons in which he played fewer than 100 games (for comparison, he played 1,000 fewer games than Palmeiro).
• Frank Robinson (586)  - Like so many others of his era, Robinson declined after age 30, but not as drastically as some others.  He only hit 40 homers once.
• Sammy Sosa (609) - Sosa may be the poster boy for the steroid era, which would explain why he was not a great home run hitter until age 24, and hit close to half his career home runs over a five-year stretch. But despite that, retiring at 38, and sitting out the 2006 season, he still hit 600.
• Ken Griffey (630) - Most readers will know that Griffey's career was marred by a slew of injuries after age 30.  Had he stayed healthy, he probably would have reached 700 or even 800.
• Willie Mays (660) - Like Williams, Mays missed time due to war, playing little in 1952 and sitting out 1953.  Given he hit 40 the following year, had it not been for the Korean War (even though Mays' home run production declined after age 36), he should have hit 700.
  
• Babe Ruth (714) - Most folks accept that Babe was the greatest slugger ever.  Most readers will also know that he spent his first five years as a pitcher.  800 was well within his reach, but since Ruth became the all-time leader when he hit his 139th round-dinger, he probably never considered that a goal.
• Hank Aaron (755) - The only player (unless A-Rod matches it) to meet all five goals. 
• Barry Bonds (762) - While many begrudge Bond's records because of steroid allegations, he still could have hit a few more - he didn't become a top notch slugger (hitting 30+) until age 25, and missed almost all of the 2005 season (and the strike-shortened 1994 season cost him some games).

While the 50+, 60+, and 70+ homer seasons may have boosted some recent players, and the steroid label will haunt them, a top notch slugger can hit 600 home runs by staying healthy (modern players are doing better at this), by playing into his late 30s or early 40s (again, modern players are doing this), and by being productive in their 30s (again, modern players have an edge).  Not fighting in wars helps the modern-era ballplayer as well.