How Romney, Smith can win Pennsylvania

While losing the election in 2004, John Kerry won Pennsylvania by 140,000. In 2008, Obama carried the Keystone state by a wide margin of 600,000 votes.  But in 2010, Republicans won the top races, with Pat Toomey going to the Senate and Tom Corbett winning the Governor's office.  If Mitt Romney and Tom Smith are to win Pennsylvania this time round, they'll need to follow the Toomey path to victory.

Here's what to watch for:

• Philadelphia: Barack Obama carried Philadelphia by 480,000 votes in 2008.  This was a big gain from 2004; Kerry's margin was 410,000 votes.  Toomey lost Philadelphia by 290,000.  (Toomey's percentage in Philadelphia was lower than either Bush's or McCain's, but turnout was much lower).   
  
  Obama likely won't get that margin this time round, but should still top Kerry's numbers from '04.  Anything better than +430,000 is good news for Obama. Less than +400,000 gives Romney a great chance.
  
  Watch the undervote here too.  In 2004, there were 40,000 fewer votes cast in Philadelphia for U.S. Senate than for President.  In 2008, there was a 68,000 vote dropoff from President to Attorney General. A big undervote could help Tom Smith in the U.S. Senate race.


• Suburban Philadelphia:  Kerry won the suburban counties (Berks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery) by 90,000.  Obama ran up a whopping 205,000 vote margin in these counties.  But Pat Toomey narrowed the gap to 23,000 votes in 2010.  If Romney can hold his own here - keeping the race close, he'll have a good shot to win.
  
  The suburban counties are not monolithic - Delaware Co. has been pretty strong for Democrats at the state and national level, while Chester remains a better bet for Republican - but the shift in voting patterns will be similar for all four.  Watch Bucks in particular to get a sense of how this trend is shaping up: Obama won Bucks by 29,000, but two years later, Toomey took the county by 14,000 (each winning about 53% of the vote).


• Allegheny County:  Allegheny County includes the Democratic stronghold of Pittsburgh, but also more conservative suburbs.  Kerry won Allegheny by 100,000, and despite doing much better statewide, Obama didn't expand the margin out west.  Toomey lost Allegheny by 40,000 in 2010. 
  
  If Romney and Tom Smith (a native of nearby Armstrong County) hold their own in Allegheny County, it should also signify they do very well throughout Western Pennsylvania--a region Republicans have made gains the last few elections with blue-collar, conservative voters.


• Rest of State:  The rest of Pennsylvania isn't quite what James Carville dubbed "Alabama in the middle", as it include smaller Democratic bases like Scranton, Erie, and Harrisburg.  But the "T" is much more conservative.  McCain won the "rest of state" by 185,000, while Bush won by a net 460,000 in 2004.  Toomey netted a 433,000 vote margin in the "rest of state" in winning in 2010. 
  
  Romney and Smith should both do very well in the other 61 Pennsylvania counties.  How well remains to be seen.  Keep an eye on Lancaster County, typically a Republican stronghold.  Bush carried Lancaster by 71,000 in 2004, Obama closed to within 27,000 in Lancaster four years later.  Toomey won Lancaster by 55,000 in 2010, with a higher percentage but lower turnout than Bush in 2004. 
  
  If Romney gets both high turnout and Toomey-like percentages in rural counties like Lancaster, he could overcome Obama's Philadelphia margin.