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| By DonkeyHotey - Donald Trump - Caricature, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=46701860 |
Today, I've got five reasons why Trump’s message is winning
1) Trump is running an anti-establishment, anti-mainstream media campaign. This makes sense for any candidate. The “establishment” (i.e., Congress, the federal government, politicians, lobbyists and political consultants) are always unpopular; maybe more now than ever. Public trust in the media is at an all-time low.
Trump campaigning as a change agent to these institutions—like Obama did—works with voters.
It also works to deflect criticism. When anyone in the media criticizes Trump, it helps him. “Of course the liberal media hates me,” he can say, and Trump voters will love it. Likewise, any criticism of Trump about his policy views or demagoguery can be met with “Oh, see the establishment is just attacking me because they are scared,” and his supporters eat that up.
Simply put, criticism by the media or anyone vaguely resembling “the establishment” won’t derail Trump.
2) Trump is the biggest personality. Trump has adopted pro-wresting tactics, realizing (as I pointed out years ago) that the best wrestler doesn’t win, but the most popular entertainer does. Same goes in politics—we don’t elect the person with the best expertise in tax policy, we elect the coolest politician.
Trump has escalated that to new heights. Trump supporters don’t care that he’s not a conservative, because they aren’t (for the most part) voting for him on the issues—they are voting for his big personality.
It also works to deflect criticism. When anyone in the media criticizes Trump, it helps him. “Of course the liberal media hates me,” he can say, and Trump voters will love it. Likewise, any criticism of Trump about his policy views or demagoguery can be met with “Oh, see the establishment is just attacking me because they are scared,” and his supporters eat that up.
Simply put, criticism by the media or anyone vaguely resembling “the establishment” won’t derail Trump.
2) Trump is the biggest personality. Trump has adopted pro-wresting tactics, realizing (as I pointed out years ago) that the best wrestler doesn’t win, but the most popular entertainer does. Same goes in politics—we don’t elect the person with the best expertise in tax policy, we elect the coolest politician.
Trump has escalated that to new heights. Trump supporters don’t care that he’s not a conservative, because they aren’t (for the most part) voting for him on the issues—they are voting for his big personality.
Trump has adopted another wrestling tactic—the heel. Trump has dominated media coverage (at some point getting 60-70% of all air time), recognizing that as long as he’s in the news, it’s good. A wrestling heel understands that hearing “boos” is a great accomplishment—what they don’t want to hear is silence. Trump recognizes that the same is true—to an extent—in politics. As long as they are talking about you—positively or negatively—it’s good for your campaign; just don’t let them ignore you.
When Trump makes controversial statements, it makes news; and he makes a lot of controversial statements and makes a lot of news. Thus Trump dominates the spotlight, dominates in name ID, and makes it tough for anyone else to get their message across.
3) Trump does appeal to voters who think immigration is the most important issue. This is a small percentage, but man are they passionate. In South Carolina exit polling, more Republicans agree that illegal immigrants should be offered legal status, and only 10% said immigration was their top issue (which is even lower in general polling). However, those voters overwhelming favor Trump.
And let’s be honest, there are bigots and xenophobes and racists voting for Trump. I’m not saying most Trump voters are racist, but Trump does attract a disproportionate number of racists. Those voters (though a small percentage of the whole), aren’t going to be shaken by my criticisms of Trump.
4) Here’s the interesting part: Trump attracts new voters. That is, he appeals to voters who aren’t traditional Republican primary voters. Many of these are folks who have been frustrated with politicians and angry simply at the direction things are going. These are folks who may not care so much about Trump’s policies at all.
And they are voters tougher for other candidates, or Trump critics, to reach. They aren't the usually targeted "Super Voters." They don't sit around watching every debate, They don't read National Review.
Trump actually does a good job talking to new voters. It’s been pointed out elsewhere Trump speaks at a 4th grade level, and speaks in a way to emphasize his points. These are great communication tools for reaching "regular people."
5) Finally, Trump’s opponents sound like politicians. Look, Ted Cruz doesn't have a lot of friends in the DC establishment, and is considered a rock-solid conservative. But he is a US Senator, and he looks and talks like a polished politician. Marco Rubio was elected to the Senate beating the establishment as a conservative challenger, and for the most part has remained a stalwart conservative. But he looks and talks like a polished politician. And honestly, four years ago, conservatives talked about their hope that Chris Christie or Jeb Bush would jump into the race as more conservative folks who could derail the uber-establishment Mitt Romney.
While I’ve noted Trump isn’t actually honest, he is blunt, he is open with his comments, he says what he thinks at the time he thinks it—and comes across as someone who “tells it like it is”. His opponents, like most politicians, try to be tactful (usually a good, but when taken to an extreme, looks like political correctness), discreet, and guarded. And even if they avoid looking dishonest, they come across as fake, rehearsed, and not genuine.
Tomorrow, I'll wrap up this series on "what can be done about it."
Trump actually does a good job talking to new voters. It’s been pointed out elsewhere Trump speaks at a 4th grade level, and speaks in a way to emphasize his points. These are great communication tools for reaching "regular people."
5) Finally, Trump’s opponents sound like politicians. Look, Ted Cruz doesn't have a lot of friends in the DC establishment, and is considered a rock-solid conservative. But he is a US Senator, and he looks and talks like a polished politician. Marco Rubio was elected to the Senate beating the establishment as a conservative challenger, and for the most part has remained a stalwart conservative. But he looks and talks like a polished politician. And honestly, four years ago, conservatives talked about their hope that Chris Christie or Jeb Bush would jump into the race as more conservative folks who could derail the uber-establishment Mitt Romney.
While I’ve noted Trump isn’t actually honest, he is blunt, he is open with his comments, he says what he thinks at the time he thinks it—and comes across as someone who “tells it like it is”. His opponents, like most politicians, try to be tactful (usually a good, but when taken to an extreme, looks like political correctness), discreet, and guarded. And even if they avoid looking dishonest, they come across as fake, rehearsed, and not genuine.
Tomorrow, I'll wrap up this series on "what can be done about it."
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