Lessons from the 2016 Primaries for the Conservative Movement

As a conservative — one with many libertarian leanings, and who puts conservative principles above partisan politics — I’m dissatisfied with the choices I’ll have for president in a few months. I know many other conservative activists who feel the same way. Many of whom are distraught — I am not. In fact, this reinforces my long-held believe that we need to focus on ideas, not electoral politics.

Here four key lessons we should take away from the 2016 election:

1) We must shift our focus away from presidential politics and the cult of personality.

Voters are irrational. Voters, by and large, don’t vote based on careful consideration of all the policy issues of the candidates. Even when they understand and care about the issues, they often don’t vote that way.

Rather, they follow a cult of personality. This is far truer in presidential elections, when celebrity trumps style and style trumps substance.

For example, Trump — a casino magnate who praises Planned Parenthood — won in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. That doesn’t imply Lancaster voters have become pro-gambling or pro-abortion. They remain the most socially conservative county in Pennsylvania.

In Western Pennsylvania, Trump did very well by attacking the “DC establishment” and its cronyism. Yet voters also told Bill Shuster — an 8-term Congressman and son of a Congressman who has been having a relationship with an airline lobbyist while writing legislation favoring the airlines — he deserves another term. Don’t read too much into the meaning of either.

This isn’t just about Trump voters. Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton were all iconic personalities. Likewise, Pennsylvania’s last gubernatorial election was only one driven by the personalities of the candidates, not their policies — in which a likable Democrat defeated an unpopular incumbent Republican, even as Republicans picked up legislative seats across the state.

On the flip side, presidential election voters — those who vote only once every four years, don’t know much beyond the presidential candidate’s names, and remain unengaged — don’t influence public policy all that much.

Too often, we have only looked at the presidential election as the definition of success — it is not and shouldn’t be. While we are building an infrastructure, it isn’t to win the next election, but to change public policy.

2) We have an opportunity to separate good policy from electoral politics.

For years, we’ve pretended the Republican party was conservative and that the presidential nominee was the face and voice of the GOP — and therefore conservatism. This meant celebrating President Bush even as he expanded Medicare, increased federal involvement in education, and approved bloated budget after bloated budget. It meant cheering for McCain as he endorsed restrictions of free speech, “Cap & Trade” legislation, and bank bailouts and federal stimulus ideas. And it meant defending Romney as he called 47% of Americans moochers.

Should Donald Trump be the nominee, this needn’t be a problem. Trump isn’t a conservative, and doesn’t articulate conservative policy positions or ideas. Conservative intellectuals have already disavowed Trump, and can continue to do so.

This provides a strong opportunity for conservatives to focus on conservative ideas and policies, divorced from the policies and rhetoric of the GOP nominee. We’ll be stronger as a movement for doing so.

3) We need to reestablish conservative principles and the conservative movement.

To be clear, it’s not merely that we have the opportunity to refocus on conservative principles, it is that we must. Being opposed to Obama or Hillary, or “Washington insiders” or “the establishment” isn’t enough — at least in the long term — to be successful in saving America.

On this, I strongly agree with Matt Lewis in his book Too Dumb to Fail that we — the conservative movement — have gone too far in dumbing down our ideas, making things too personal, and focusing on the next election rather than winning the war of ideas. We now have an opportunity to get back to those roots and focus our efforts on selling the idea that free market policies benefit all Americans.

4) We must recognize the importance of effective communication.

In one aspect though, we need to be more like Trump: in his ability to reach voters. Trump connects with voters who aren’t traditional Republican primary voters. Many of these are folks who have been frustrated with politicians and angry simply at the direction things are going.

To be sure, they are voters tougher for other candidates, Trump critics, and conservative leaders to reach. They aren’t the usually targeted “Super Voters.” They do not sit around watching every debate; they don’t read National Review or even the Wall Street Journal.

Trump does a good job talking to new voters. It’s been pointed out elsewhere Trump speaks at a 4th grade level, and speaks in a way to emphasize his points. These are great communication tools for reaching “regular people.”

If the conservative movement is going to win the war of ideas, we must become more effective communicators to regular voters.

Cross-posted on Medium