Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Trump Running Behind GOP Senate Candidates in Key States

The tables below shows polling presidential and US Senate polling in 10 swing states that also have key Senate races.


In 9 of 10 races, the Republican Senate candidate is running ahead of Trump, by an average of 5.5 points. In five of those states, Trump is losing, while the Republican Senate candidate is ahead. In one other, the Senate race is a virtual tossup, while Trump is losing handily.

What to make of this? I have two conclusions

First: Conservatism is alive and well. Trump’s current poll deficit, should it hold, should not be read as “a crisis for the Republican party”. Nor should it be considered a crisis for the conservative movement. In fact, most of these Republican Senate candidates are more conservative than Trump! Trump’s problems are Trump’s alone.

Second: Conservatives should focus their energies on down ballot races. As the numbers show, there are a number of Senate races that will go down to the wire. I’m not arguing the Presidential race is necessarily decided—a lot can happen between now and Election Day. But I am suggesting that if we want to hold Hillary Clinton in check as President—and I would argue we need to hold Donald Trump in check just as much—these Senate races are critical.

If we want to ensure conservative justices on the Supreme Court, the Senate is where that action will happen. If we want to repeal Obamacare, controlling Congress is essential to that. And if we want conservative policy victories, it is the down-ballot races—Senate, Congress, and state houses—that will be most critical to our success.   


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