Iowa Settles Nothing

Following yesterday's Iowa Caucus, pundits have been trying to assess what it means. I may be a little late in the game, but here is the answer – Iowa's results don't mean much at all.

What is meaningful about Iowa is that nothing was settled. Coming into the caucus, there were three Democrats and five Republicans (not counting Ron Paul, who will get some votes, as much for the ideas he represents as for those who truly want him as commander-in-chief) with a realistic shot at winning the party nod. Today, there are there were three Democrats and five Republicans with a realistic shot at winning the party nod. We are in for a long process.

That is not to say that Iowa couldn't have settled much. Most have pointed to Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney as the "losers" – that isn't accurate. Finishing second (or a virtual tie for second) in small state, where no one captured over 40% of their party's votes, is hardly crippling. Neither is hurting for cash, name recognition, or overall support. However, both were attempting to seize early victories, become the frontrunners, and drive opponents out of the race—neither accomplished that.

There are four things that candidates can achieve in a caucus—win delegates, win over financial supporters, earner greater grassroots support, and receive greater media attention. The Iowa caucus has almost no delegate implications (they don't officially choose delegates for several months, and even then only a few); and only a few candidates earned or lost support in the other categories.

Barack Obama helped himself only slightly—his finances were already rock solid, but he may help persuade some voters that he is a/the legitimate rival to the Clinton machine. Huckabee should be able to earn more financial support following his win, but remains an underdog in the eyes of many (his poll surge and heightened media attention began weeks ago).

Iowa means almost nothing for Rudy Giuliani and John McCain—Rudy has plenty of money (despite Ed Rollins assertions) and support. His late/big state strategy may or may not pay off, but Iowa did nothing to derail that. McCain had surged in polls before Iowa, and his focus is on New Hampshire. He may have helped himself somewhat in the fundraising category, but only temporarily.

The impact for John Edwards and Fred Thompson is more up in the air. Both need more campaign cash, and it isn't clear if they did well enough to earn more, or poorly enough for the well to dry up. Neither did much to win more media attention or popular support—but probably didn't hurt themselves too much either.

No one dropped out, except for a couple of candidates no one realized were running, and the race remains the same as it was before the caucus.