Is the Tea Party Movement Dying?

Joe Scarborough had a recent column asking "Is the Tea Party over?"  Curiously, I had been thinking of writing a post with the opposite conclusions.  First, let me rebut Scarborough, and the three examples of the movement "tearing itself apart".

1) Scarborough points to questions/jokes about Scott Brown (namely by Glen Beck), and asks "Why are the tea partyers turning on their own?"  But Joe misses the obvious fact that that many of those supporting Brown - including Jim Demint and the Tea Party Patriots - acknowledged that he was not one of their own, but that supporting him in Massachusetts would be a strategic pick-up (more on this below)

2) He points to a National Tea Party Convention, and Redstate's Erik Erickson's criticism of the event.  But Erickson's criticism is well-justified.  The sponsor of the National Convention have not been part of the movement, are charging an unusually high price, and are looking to make a profit.  Rather than being those within the movement fighting amongst themselves, it is really those within criticizing outsider who are simply trying to make a buck exploiting the name.

3) Finally, he points to the failure of the Ross Perot and the Reform Party in the 1990s as what could happen to the Tea Party movement.  This is the only valid point.  However, the tea party movement is not personality driven, and has no Ross Perot, but is a leaderless, grassroots, movement.  Furthermore, there has not been a serious attempt to form a third political party.

Now on to my observations.  To start, I will dispense with the "tea party" label - there are groups forming from this spirit, but only a portion of them identify themselves with the tea parties.  Heretofore I will refer to the movement as the Liberty Movement.


What I have seen over the past few weeks and months in not a dying movement, but one that is stronger now than ever.  The Liberty Movement did not end with the tea parties (as I had once feared) or the 9/12 rally, but is continuing to grow both in size and scope.  As a policy wonk, I have been able to speak to a number of these groups across Pennsylvania, and been amazed at the numbers attending these forums.  They certainly aren't attending because I am a great speaker (I'm not) or famous (again not) or because of my good looks (which since I'm not famous, they wouldn't know about beforehand).

Rather, these are people concerned, many for the first time, about what is happening in politics at the national, state, and local level, and want to hear about government pensions or the state budget.  Three positives to counter Scarborough

1) The Liberty Movement is growing - these groups are adding new members and getting new faces at their forums.  And there are many more looking for a group to get involved in.

2) The Liberty Movement is increasingly informed - these activist already are well aware of the voting records of members of Congress, and are quickly catching up to speed on state lawmakers and local officials.  This spells trouble for those seeking to capitalize on the movement and think they will simply support Republicans. Members of the Liberty Movement are also paying attention to the issues; they of course understand the details of the health care bill, but are also paying attention to state budget and tax proposal and local issues.

3) The Liberty Movement is becoming organized and getting strategic - the movement has moved past protest.  They are holding forums to discuss issues (indeed many groups have committees studying legislation and policy areas).  They are beginning to vet candidates for office - some groups may make endorsements, others will stick to educating their members about the positions of candidates.  And these groups are looking to get involved in the election process, even down to getting new people to run for party committee positions - which poses a great threat to the party establishment (in both parties).

What Scarborough misses with his national-level observation is that he can't see the trees for the forest.  All politics is local, and the influence of individual groups (i.e. trees that are ever-growing) at the local level should not be underestimated.

I can't say that the Liberty Movement will have a lasting influence, or will fade like the Reform party.  But any prognosis of an eminent demise is greatly exaggerated.